SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

COULD IT HAPPEN?   Related to the piece below is the cautious belief that my blue state, the once-great New York, could actually elect a Republican governor this year. Now, let's be careful about that. New York Republicans love to lose. That's why they do it so often, so take everything you read with a grain of tofu. From the New York Sun:  New York’s Republicans are eyeing with confidence a suburban strategy as a path to victory in the 2022 gubernatorial race, though significant challenges lay ahead. The state’s suburban counties are “probably the most fertile ground for persuadable voters,” a John Jay professor, Brian Arbour, told The New York Sun.
He said counties like Westchester, Suffolk, and Nassau will be prime areas for GOP candidates looking to loosen the Democratic stranglehold on the governorship to pick up votes in the 2022 election. “The big urban areas are going to go for the Democrats, rural areas will go for Republicans, and the suburbs will be the big place where Republicans can persuade voters,” Mr. Arbour said. This strategy has borne fruit for Republicans in other states.  In Virginia, Governor Youngkin’s victory was widely credited to high turnout in the suburbs, where his campaign managed to mobilize voters on issues like inflation, school curriculum, and Covid mandates.
In New Jersey, Republicans nearly secured victory after implementing a suburban strategy similar to Mr. Youngkin. Although Governor Murphy managed to retain office, Republicans narrowed 2017’s 12-point loss to three points.   I will add my own hunch that the Democratic vote in New York City will be lower than normal thanks to the raging crime rate. Remember, when pushed far enough, New York City dwellers can be convinced to vote Republican. Recall that New York elected Rudy Giuliani as mayor, and he broke the back of the crime wave.

March 28, 2022